An Impending Bloodbath in Egypt: Will It Break the Coup?
Banana Republic Without Bananas
by ESAM AL-AMIN
There is no parallel in modern history to the recent events in Egypt,
which have so quickly and effortlessly stripped people of their will.
Within a year, the nation that went to the polls in free and fair elections
to elect the lower and upper houses of parliament, choose the first
civilian president in a multi-candidate race, and approve a new
constitution, remarkably witnessed the reversal and invalidation of its
nascent democratic institutions. After the triumph of the great Egyptian
uprising in February 2011, such a tragic outcome was not the anticipated
feat of its promising trajectory.
But the setback to the march of freedom and democracy in a region that
has been plagued with despotism, repression, foreign domination, and
corruption, could not have taken place without the active scheming and
subversive action by myriad players led by the fulool counterrevolutionaries,
or Mubarak loyalists and corrupt oligarchs, as well as the
“deep state,” which is a decades-old web of corruption and special
interests entrenched within the state’s institutions. Former justice
minister Ahmad Makki detailed in recent interviews the depth of the
entrenched elements of Mubarak loyalists including the judiciary, which
actively undermined Morsi’s introduction of real reforms. Other actors
who were dismayed by the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and the
Islamists in general, also played a critical role in dislodging them from
power and creating a constitutional crisis. These players have not only
included most secular, liberal and leftist parties and elites, but have also
involved foreign powers such as Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates, which saw the Egyptian revolution as a threat to their
interests. Moreover, youth groups and ordinary citizens were frustrated
with the slow progress in fulfilling the declared promises of the
revolution, namely “decent living, freedom, social justice, and human
dignity.”
A Military Coup with Civilian Co-conspirators
As I argued before, the July 3 military coup was not in response to calls
for a second wave of the revolution as falsely presented by the anti-
Morsi forces. It was a determined and well-orchestrated plot to oust the
democratically elected president after a single year in power. One of the
co-conspirators, Mona Makram Ebeid, plainly exposed some of the
details in her speech before the Middle East Institute (MEI) on July 11.
Ebeid is a veteran of Egyptian politics, jumping between the regime de
jure and the opposition. She was not only appointed to the legislature by
Mubarak as well as Morsi, but she also served as an advisor to the
Military Council during the transitional period. As a Coptic Christian
woman who espoused a secular outlook, she embodied the elements of an
ideal minority representative. She was also appointed to the
Constitutional Constituent Assembly – the body charged with writing
the constitution – before the mass resignation of its secular members
last November. According to her statement before the MEI, she was
invited on the morning of June 30 to a meeting at the mansion of former
Mubarak loyalist and housing minister Hasaballah Al-Kafrawi. Seated
next to him was retired Gen. Fuad Allam, a former deputy chief of
Egypt’s internal security service and a hardline MB foe. Having led the
unit that monitored and investigated the religious groups for over two
decades, Gen. Allam was one of the most notorious torture experts in the
world. Among the attendees were also two-dozen secular journalists,
academics, and opposition leaders. During the meeting, Minister Kafrawi
stated that he had been in touch with the army, the Coptic Pope and
Sheikh al-Azhar. He added that army chief Gen. Abdelfattah Sisi had
privately requested a “written popular demand” in order to intervene on
behalf of the opposition. By 3:00 PM, a statement by over 50 anti-Morsi
public figures was delivered to the army demanding its intervention.
Since the organizers had previously announced that the demonstration
at Tahrir Square would launch at 5:00 PM, the statement issued that
morning was in fact requested by the army and provided by the secular
opposition before any meaningful anti-Morsi demonstration had ever
come onto the streets.
If the military is in charge, can anyone still say it’s not a
coup?
Gen. Sisi ousted President Morsi on July 3 as his co-conspirators,
including opposition leader Muhammad ElBaradei, were looking on. The
anti-Morsi forces believed they had outmaneuvered the hapless
president, the MB, and their Islamist allies. Furthermore, they were
convinced that within days their Islamist opponents would accept their
fate and recognize the new status quo. If not, the new military-led
regime was ready to beat them into submission using its Mubarak-era
hardline tactics.
But contrary to these expectations, the MB, their Islamist allies, and
hundreds of thousands of ordinary citizens who believed their votes had
been discarded, took to the streets in large demonstrations. Tens of
thousands camped out in major squares in Cairo, Giza, and around the
nation. In their desperate attempt to scare off the demonstrators, the
police and the army had committed within few days several massacres
that included the July 5 carnage near the Presidential Guards social club
that left over 50 people dead and hundreds wounded.
In his attempt to disguise the military rule behind a civilian façade, upon
declaring the coup on July 3 Gen. Sisi appointed the head of the Supreme
Court as the interim president. A few days later he chose ElBaradei as
Vice President and economist Hazem Al-Beblawi, as Prime Minister. As
the anti-coup demonstrations persisted for almost four weeks, Gen. Sisi
delivered a speech on July 24 asking the public to demonstrate in the
streets to give him “a mandate and an order” to crackdown against
“violence and terrorism.” It was a brazen request to use brutal tactics to
subdue the anti-coup protesters, who incidentally had called for massive
demonstrations across Egypt to take place on the same day in their call
to reinstate Morsi, activate the constitution, and restore the parliament.
Legal experts were perplexed by Sisi’s request since the army did not
need a mandate to fight terrorism. That was part of its mission anyway.
Even if a popular mandate was needed to crackdown on the opposition in
the name of fighting terrorism, such an appeal should be made by the
interim president or prime minister, not the military leader of the
country. It was another unmistaken sign of who is actually in charge.
In his attempt to justify and rationalize the coup, Gen. Sisi told the public
during his speech that he had been loyal to the deposed president and
had done everything in his power to counsel him to compromise with the
opposition. As evidence he stated that all his attempts were witnessed by
former presidential candidate Muhammad Salim Al-Awwa, Ahmad
Fahmy, the president of the upper house of parliament, and Morsi’s
Prime Minister, Hisham Qandil. Within 24 hours, all three figures denied
his assertions.
License to Kill
By July 26, both pro- and anti-coup demonstrators were mobilizing in
the streets. In response to Sisi’s plea, the former mainly gathered
around Tahrir Square, the Presidential palace, and a few other places
around the country such as Alexandria. But as I discussed in an earlier
article Tahrir Square could not hold more than half a million
demonstrators. Despite their unverified claims to the contrary, pro-Sisi
crowds could not have exceeded one million nationwide. On the other
hand, the anti-coup demonstrators assembled in 35 different locations in
twenty-five provinces across the nation with some estimating the crowd
to number 5-7 million. Yet both sides exaggerated their numbers as the
pro-coup declared their number to be over 30 million while the anticoup
claimed 40 million. Since June 30, the opposition has insisted on
using the figure of 33 million in order to beat the highest turn out of 32
million voters during the parliamentary elections won by the MBaffiliated
party in early 2012. Such an improbable figure would mean
that two-thirds of the Egyptian adult population was in the street.
Another popular myth is the claim that in less than eight weeks 22
million registered voters signed a petition to demand early presidential
elections as a prelude to the June 30 demonstrations. But the Tamarrod
(or Rebellion) movement was established in late April by three young
individuals and did not have an organizational infrastructure. Such an
improbable feat would have required 4 million hours or half a million
man-hours per week. Needless to say, no one has ever verified the
authenticity of this petition. By contrast, the MB in 2010 was only able to
gather less than one million anti-Mubarak signatures over several
months, even with its massive organizational infrastructure on the
ground.
Meanwhile, the official and pro-coup private media (incorporating almost
all Egyptian-based media with the exception of Al-Jazeera Egypt) totally
ignored the anti-coup demonstrators and declared by the end of the day
that the Egyptian people have given Gen. Sisi his mandate to clampdown
on the MB and their supporters. By midnight, the police, supported by
hundreds of thugs, attacked a peaceful march of tens of thousands of
pro-Morsi demonstrators in northeast Cairo. Over several hours the
police used thousands of tear gas canisters causing severe burns and
suffocation. It used live ammunition that deliberately killed over 200
protesters including 66 that were pronounced clinically dead. It also used
birdshot that caused serious injuries. By the end of the ten-hour turkey
shoot there were over five thousand people injured in addition to the
fatalities. Doctors at the field hospital next to the area where the
demonstrators have camped for weeks appealed for the public to donate
blood and emergency medical supplies. The next day the government
blamed the demonstrators as Interior Minister Gen. Muhammad
Ibrahim blatantly lied that his officers did not fire a single shot against
any demonstrator, not just on that day but ever – not even during
Mubarak’s time. Both Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch
condemned the killing and categorically blamed the government.
The Manufacturing of Hatred, The Death of Conscience, and
the Return of the Police State
After the triumph of the 2011 uprising, many Egyptians proudly
asserted that the most important achievements of this momentous event
was the freedoms enjoyed by all Egyptians unleashed in its wake – of
speech, press, assembly, and political association. In his last speech to
the nation, Morsi boasted that during his one-year tenure not a single
TV channel or newspaper was closed or a journalist imprisoned because
of political opinion. In fact, Morsi issued a decree last fall that
decriminalized a Mubarak-era law that outlawed written or verbal
insults hurled at the president. In addition, there were no political
prisoners during Morsi’s reign even though hundreds of violent
demonstrations had taken place including the torching of dozens of
government buildings and private properties, including the attack on the
presidential palace using a crane and Molotov cocktails.
Yet in less than a month after the military coup, there have been more
than 480 people killed, over 10,000 injured, and over 2,000 political
arrests without legitimate charges for simply rejecting the coup. Al-
Wasat (Center) Party leader Abulela Madi and his deputy Esam Sultan
were arrested on July 29 and later charged with incitement and
conspiracy to murder. According to Madi’s son, both political leaders
were told at the time of their arrest that if they were to publicly support
the coup they would not be arrested. Both summarily rejected the offer
and went to prison.
During his press conference, Gen. Ibrahim nonchalantly acknowledged
the return of the secret unit in charge of monitoring and prosecuting
religious groups and individuals even though it was disbanded after the
2011 uprising. Not only was this unit reconstituted, but it rehired the
same notorious officers who were in charge of the torture chambers
during the Mubarak regime. They now have been re-instated to resume
their infamous brutal tactics presumably with total impunity. Such
blatant action prompted former presidential candidate Abdelmoneim
Abol Fotouh, who initially accepted the ouster of Morsi, to reverse
himself and question the coup’s real objectives.
Furthermore,
within minutes of the ouster of Morsi, at least nine pro-Morsi TV stations were
taken off the air. Remarkably, the Egyptian media, whether official or private,
is precipitously singing to the same tune. With the exception of Al-Jazeera,
rarely would one now find any criticism of Gen. Sisi or the coup on any TV
channel. For weeks the Egyptian media has been relentless in portraying the MB
and their supporters as violent, terrorists, extremists, foreign agents,
conspirators, and murderers. The vicious campaign has the combined features of
fascism and McCarthyism. It embodies the hate filled 1930s campaign of Nazi Germany against
the Jews, and the ugly media-led incitement of the Rwandan genocide of the
1990s. It has even reached the point where the state and liberal media or
government officials and secular elites have rarely shown any sympathy to the
killed or injured at the hands of the army or the police, as if they were
foreign enemies or dangerous criminals, and not simply their political
opponents. Such portrayals prompted prominent columnist Fahmy Howaidy to question
whether the collective conscience of the Egyptian people has been fatally
wounded.
In the aftermath of the December 16, 2011 massacre by the army in
front of the Council of Ministers building that resulted in a few deaths,
ElBaradei tweeted that the brutal crackdown on the peaceful
demonstrators was unacceptable, inhuman, and in violation of all
standards of decency and human rights. In addition, during that period
Hazem ElBeblawi resigned as deputy prime minister to protest the
army’s crackdown on the youth protesters, calling it barbaric. Having
been appointed by the coup leaders as vice president and prime minister
respectively, both men have given lip service to the hundreds of people
killed while peacefully protesting the coup. One of the few voices that
questioned the double standard of Egyptian liberals was Amr Hamzawy,
himself a secular and liberal. He decried the death of Egyptian liberalism
and cried out for its revival, for which he was not only criticized by the
Egyptian media and the liberal elites, but has since been ostracized and
viciously attacked.
Regrettably, many U.S. and Western media outlets, including such
alternative media as Democracy Now! (DN), repeated much of the
fabricated rhetoric about the violent behavior of MB supporters and
anti-coup protesters within their camps and designated sit-ins. For
example, without citing any evidence, the DN correspondent in Cairo
repeated the preposterous claim that the MB demonstrators exhibited
violent behavior or carried weapons. In fact, the anti-coup leaders have
extended an open invitation to all journalists, media outlets, human
rights organizations, and NGOs to join them and have unfettered access
to inspect the whole area to demonstrate the nature of their peaceful
protests.
Showdown: A Humiliating Proposal faced with Determination
to Reinstate Morsi and Restore the Constitution
Meanwhile, the anti-coup demonstrators have shown determination and
resilience. For five weeks they have not only rallied by the hundreds of
thousands within major squares in Cairo and Giza, but were also able to
expand and attract many pro-democracy groups and ordinary citizens
who did not consider themselves particularly ideologically affiliated with
the Islamists. Every day dozens of rallies in every province attract
thousands of ordinary citizens who in turn march against the military
coup declaring their rejection of its ramifications. Despite the intense
heat, the fasting during the month of Ramadan, and the police
crackdowns and harassment, the demonstrators have only increased in
numbers. Furthermore, dozens of groups have been formed that joined
the protesters against the coup: academics against the coup, students
against the coup, journalists against the coup, etc., as well as lawyers,
judges, farmers, laborers, professional syndicates, Azhari scholars, and
even some Coptic liberals such as human rights activist and lawyer
Nevine Milak.
However, throughout the crisis, coup leaders have shown no sympathy
or willingness to compromise or engage in serious dialogue. Their empty
rhetoric exhibited the language of the victor over the vanquished.
According to a well-placed source close to the MB, by the fourth week,
the military sent a proposal to a senior MB leader and former minister.
It called for the MB to immediately disband their sit-ins, end their
demonstrations, recognize and accept the new political reality (i.e., the
military coup), and admit to their mishandling of ruling the country. In
return, the military promised to release all MB prisoners, drop the
charges, and allow the group to participate in the political process. The
intermediary further told the MB leadership that in the next
parliamentary elections the group would only be allowed to win 15-20
percent of the seats, while all the Islamic parties combined would not
exceed 30 percent, a warning sign of fraudulent elections. The
interlocutor then made it clear that the proposal was not subject to
negotiation, but was a matter of “take it or leave it.” He warned that if
the proposal was rejected, the military not only would crackdown heavily
on the group to end their protests, but also that their group and affiliated
party would soon be dissolved and outlawed. The MB defiantly rejected
the offer out of hand, and vowed to remain in the streets, continue their
peaceful protests, escalate their mobilization efforts, and further develop
their civil disobedience until victory or death at the hands of the military
and the police.
The U.S. and the West: It is not Confused, but Confusing
Throughout the process of planning and executing the ouster of Morsi
and the MB, the U.S. was fully in the loop. Even though the U.S. was not
certain whether the coup plotters would be able to pull it off, it urged
Morsi during the months of May and June to appoint ElBaradei as prime
minister even though the latter was quietly plotting to oust him. During
late June, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel called Gen. Sisi at least five
times while the coup was in progress. Along with National Security
Advisor Susan Rice, Hagel eventually gave his blessing provided that
civilian rule is restored within a few months. Gen. Sisi promised his
counterpart that stability and calm would be swiftly restored. The
Obama administration struggled to give the coup its blessing in public as
it was clear that such support would contradict a 1961 law that
prohibited providing aid or the support of the overthrow of a
democratically elected government. But with few exceptions such as Sen.
Rand Paul, most lawmakers including Intelligence Committee Chairman
Congressman Mike Rogers gave their blessings and supported the coup.
Sen. Tim Kaine of the Foreign Relations Committee even exposed the
role of the UAE and Jordanian ambassadors in lobbying congress on
behalf of the military coup.
Meanwhile, the leaders of the military coup have become very nervous
as they failed to stabilize the country or tame the opposition one month
after the coup. Only five countries, all monarchies, have publicly declared
their support of the coup. They are Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait,
Bahrain, and Jordan. Ironically, Tamarrod’s founder Mahmoud Badr has
reversed himself with regards to his assessment of Saudi Arabia. Last
year he strongly criticized the authoritarian system of Saudi Arabia, yet
after the coup he profusely thanked its rulers for their support.
It is not by coincidence that much of the support to the coup in the U.S.
has come from the pro-Israel quarters. Israel has been mourning the
loss of Mubarak ever since his ouster. It considered Mubarak its
“strategic asset,” which was demonstrated by Israel’s chief of staff,
former Israeli ambassador to Egypt, and Israel’s enablers in the U.S. A
retired pro-coup Egyptian general even argued that Morsi was toppled
by the military for his strong support of Hamas in Gaza, which in his
view threatened Egypt’s national security. Thus, with the return of the
military at the helm of the country, Israel and its supporters believe
they could regain their strategic relationship.
The reaction to the coup by the West has been timid to say the least.
Initially, the West was cautiously waiting to see if the military was able
to restore stability and move forward on its declared political roadmap.
But by the fifth week, it became apparent that the political scene was still
in turmoil with a complete political stalemate as the anti-coup protesters
have remained defiant and determined to restore democracy, and
defend Morsi’s legitimacy. The African Union has emphatically rejected
the coup and suspended Egypt’s membership in the AU until democratic
rule is restored. Similarly, Turkey, South Africa, Tunisia, Iran, Pakistan,
Malaysia, and Indonesia strongly criticized the coup and called for
reinstating the elected president.
Meanwhile, European Union foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton
visited Egypt within days of the coup. She was told then that the
country’s stability would be restored within a short period of time. By
the fifth week she again visited the country and demanded to see Morsi
as his supporters filled the streets in their daily protests. In essence,
Ashton sought a compromise that would incorporate the MB and their
Islamist allies in a future political map. Europe could not look the other
way as a dangerous and volatile situation continues to develop to its
south. Uncharacteristically, she interrupted her press conference with
ElBaradei and left abruptly after he rudely did not allow her to answer a
question by a French reporter. The questioner asked whether Morsi
would play any political role in the future, to which ElBaradei quickly
answered with an emphatic no, without allowing Ashton to answer, at
which point she withdrew from the press conference. In addition, much
of Ashton’s replies to the few questions she answered were
mistranslated, thereby giving the audience the false impression that
Europe had supported the coup. This sorry spectacle was a diplomatic
disaster for ElBaradei and the coup leaders. But on August 1, the U.S.
came to their rescue as Secretary of State John Kerry defended the
military takeover in Egypt during his visit to Pakistan.
Possible Imminent Scenarios: Is a bloodbath around the
corner?
It appears that everyone was passing the buck. Gen. Sisi asked the
public on July 24 to give him a mandate through mass protests to
crackdown on “violence and terrorism.” On July 27, military
spokesperson Col. Muhammad Ahmad Ali declared that the mandate has
been received. But in the days since the military has actually withdrawn
from most of the areas surrounding the protesters. Military and political
experts have been warning that the possible involvement of the army in
killing the protesters might undermine not only the institutions of the
state, but also unravel the army itself. By July 30, the interim president
then gave Prime Minister Beblawi a mandate to declare a state of
emergency and crackdown on the protesters who refuse to disband. Yet
on August 1, Beblawi’s cabinet transferred that authority to Interior
Minister Gen. Ibrahim, whose ministry immediately issued a stern
warning to all protesters to disband or otherwise face a certain ending to
their sit-ins and possible death. The protesters categorically rejected this
unambiguous threat, and even dared the police to attack vowing not to
resist while protesting peacefully.
But the decision to reject the offer of safe passage should not be
surprising. In 1954, there was a similar standoff between the army and
the MB. After weeks of massive demonstrations by the MB against the
authoritarian rule of the military, the army asked for calm and requested
dialogue and negotiations with the MB. Consequently, MB leader and
judge Abdel Qader Odeh dismissed the crowds, but by the evening he
was arrested along with many other senior MB leaders. Within weeks
most leaders were charged with subversive activities including the
assassination attempt of army leader Gamal Abdel Nasser. Eventually,
six MB leaders were executed including Odeh.
Regrettably, government prosecutors and judges have politicized the
judicial system and made a mockery of it, aggressively using Mubarakera
tactics. Former MB head and General Guide Mahdi Akef, as well as
the current Guide Muhammad Badie, and his two deputies Khayrat Al-
Shater and Rashad Bayoumi, were charged with murder and treason and
could face the death penalty. Other Islamist political leaders were
charged with ridiculous accusations in order to publicly humiliate them.
For example, former parliamentary speaker and head of the Freedom
and Justice Party (the MB affiliated political party), Saad Al-Katatni, and
former presidential candidate Hazem Abu Ismail, were charged with
forming a gang to rob houses. Meanwhile, as President Morsi was
detained illegally for weeks while world leaders demanded his release,
government prosecutors charged him this week with communicating
with Hamas, a charge that is only considered criminal by Israel. Another
accusation against Morsi was his escape from prison on January 27,
2011, when he was detained illegally by Mubarak’s goons at the height of
the 2011 uprising.
For the past month, liberal and secular elites have urged the government
to crackdown hard on the protesters regardless of how many people lose
their lives. Some liberal supporters of the coup even argued that it is
necessary to sacrifice blood in order to establish a secular democracy and
ban the involvement of any religious group in politics. Meanwhile, the
U.S. administration is willing to give the army and police one more
chance to end the challenge posed by the anti-coup protesters. While the
U.S. might look the other way if the loss of life is in the hundreds, it is
unlikely that it would back the crackdown if the casualties are in the
thousands.
Egyptian generals initially justified their military coup as the only option
available to prevent bloodshed. Now they promise to spill blood, perhaps
lots of it, in order to preserve their increasingly disintegrating coup.
Meanwhile, the defenders of democracy and constitutional legitimacy are
determined to stay the course until the will of the people is respected. It
is the classic struggle between right and might. History shows that right
ultimately prevails.
ENJOYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!
And Blessed Are The Ones Who Care For Their
Fellow Men!
